Bottom Line - PSA Evolution

PSA vs Time
Date 02/25/95 12/15/97 04/27/99 07/27/99 08/01/99 09/21/99 10/12/99 10/27/99 11/29/99 01/04/00 02/07/00
PSA 1.72 1.9 5.4 diagnosis 6.2 (est) 1.9 1.4* 2.2 2.1 2.4 2.0
Date 03/16/00 04/17/00 06/02/00 07/10/00 08/10/00 09/08/00 09/21/00 10/05/00 11/10/00 12/11/00 01/11/01
PSA 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.3 2.2 3.8* 2.5 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.2
Date 02/15/01 03/01/01 04/05/01 05/09/01 05/11/01 05/25/01 06/06/01 07/11/01 08/14/01 09/10/01 10/09/01
PSA 2.8 2.5 2.6 19.6 14.0 4.0 2.5 2.3 1.91 2.12 1.93
Date 11/08/01 12/11/01 01/09/02 01/11/02 01/15/02 01/21/02 01/29/02 02/05/02 02/13/02 02/22/02 03/28/02
PSA 2.15 2.15 8.64 6.70 5.43 5.45 4.01 2.97 2.43 2.51 2.49
Date 04/29/02 05/28/02 06/24/02 07/22/02 08/20/02 09/26/02 11/04/02 12/10/02 01/27/03 02/05/03 03/11/03
PSA 2.15 2.08 2.07 2.16 2.08 1.96 2.37 2.08 2.59 2.40 1.95
Date 04/22/03 06/16/03 08/01/03 09/22/03 11/17/03 01/13/04 03/19/04 05/06/04 07/14/04 08/04/04 10/15/04
PSA 1.89 2.18 2.15 2.25 1.88 2.08 2.29 1.91 2.54 2.53 2.17
Date 12/03/04 12/13/04 12/22/04 03/28/05 04/05/05 06/01/05 07/06/05 08/09/05 09/21/05 11/21/05 01/18/06
PSA 6.45 3.37 3.29 5.3 7.43 4.42 18.3 2.44 3.03 2.23 2.37
Free PSA       15 %              
Date 03/06/06 04/18/06 08/14/06 01/22/07 03/05/07 05/07/07 08/22/07 09/28/07 12/18/07 02/14/08 07/07/08
PSA 3.27 4.33 4.78 3.61 4.34
UCSF		 3.46 4.62 5.14 3.25 4.00 4.00
Free PSA   16 %                  
Date 09/22/08 02/13/09 06/18/09 11/04/09 03/19/10 10/11/10 02/22/11 06/10/11 11/02/11    
PSA 5.86 5.72 5.92 5.00 4.61 4.7 5.84 5.4 5.2    
Free PSA                      
The estimate comes from a linear model ==> 3.5/16 months = 0.21875/month
* 4 months (May - Aug) = 0.875
==> Aug PSA ~ 6.2
 
Diagnosis: T1c, Gleason 3+3, no symptoms, no cancer found by DRE, TRUS; only in 2 of 14 biopsy cores; some cancer found in 1 Sep 1999 MRI Spectroscopy
 
Graphical Image of PSA vs Time
 
Note that PSA reliability/reproducibility/variability is about +/- 10-15%
 
See the discussion in the full document ( http://www.cohensw.com/mvpcsg_nov99_text.html)
The anomolous values of May 2001, Jan 2002 and the Winter of 2005 are due to bouts of prostatitis. 

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© Copyright 2000-2011, Howard J. Cohen, Ph.D., All Rights Reserved

Created: 26 October 1999
Last updated: 04 November 2011
Author: Howard J. Cohen