Bottom Line - PSA Evolution

**PSA vs Time**
Date	02/25/95	12/15/97	04/27/99	07/27/99	08/01/99	09/21/99	10/12/99	10/27/99	11/29/99	01/04/00	02/07/00
PSA	1.72	1.9	5.4	diagnosis	6.2 (est)	1.9	1.4*	2.2	2.1	2.4	2.0
Date	03/16/00	04/17/00	06/02/00	07/10/00	08/10/00	09/08/00	09/21/00	10/05/00	11/10/00	12/11/00	01/11/01
PSA	1.8	2.0	2.2	2.3	2.2	3.8*	2.5	2.2	2.2	2.1	2.2
Date	02/15/01	03/01/01	04/05/01	05/09/01	05/11/01	05/25/01	06/06/01	07/11/01	08/14/01	09/10/01	10/09/01
PSA	2.8	2.5	2.6	19.6	14.0	4.0	2.5	2.3	1.91	2.12	1.93
Date	11/08/01	12/11/01	01/09/02	01/11/02	01/15/02	01/21/02	01/29/02	02/05/02	02/13/02	02/22/02	03/28/02
PSA	2.15	2.15	8.64	6.70	5.43	5.45	4.01	2.97	2.43	2.51	2.49
Date	04/29/02	05/28/02	06/24/02	07/22/02	08/20/02	09/26/02	11/04/02	12/10/02	01/27/03	02/05/03	03/11/03
PSA	2.15	2.08	2.07	2.16	2.08	1.96	2.37	2.08	2.59	2.40	1.95
Date	04/22/03	06/16/03	08/01/03	09/22/03	11/17/03	01/13/04	03/19/04	05/06/04	07/14/04	08/04/04	10/15/04
PSA	1.89	2.18	2.15	2.25	1.88	2.08	2.29	1.91	2.54	2.53	2.17
Date	12/03/04	12/13/04	12/22/04	03/28/05	04/05/05	06/01/05	07/06/05	08/09/05	09/21/05	11/21/05	01/18/06
PSA	6.45	3.37	3.29	5.3	7.43	4.42	18.3	2.44	3.03	2.23	2.37
Free PSA				15 %
Date	03/06/06	04/18/06	08/14/06	01/22/07	03/05/07	05/07/07	08/22/07	09/28/07	12/18/07	02/14/08	07/07/08
PSA	3.27	4.33	4.78	3.61	4.34 UCSF	3.46	4.62	5.14	3.25	4.00	4.00
Free PSA		16 %
Date	09/22/08
PSA	5.86
Free PSA

PSA vs Time
Date 02/25/95 12/15/97 04/27/99 07/27/99 08/01/99 09/21/99 10/12/99 10/27/99 11/29/99 01/04/00 02/07/00

PSA 1.72 1.9 5.4 diagnosis 6.2 (est) 1.9 1.4* 2.2 2.1 2.4 2.0

Date 03/16/00 04/17/00 06/02/00 07/10/00 08/10/00 09/08/00 09/21/00 10/05/00 11/10/00 12/11/00 01/11/01

PSA 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.3 2.2 3.8* 2.5 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.2

Date 02/15/01 03/01/01 04/05/01 05/09/01 05/11/01 05/25/01 06/06/01 07/11/01 08/14/01 09/10/01 10/09/01

PSA 2.8 2.5 2.6 19.6 14.0 4.0 2.5 2.3 1.91 2.12 1.93
Date 11/08/01 12/11/01 01/09/02 01/11/02 01/15/02 01/21/02 01/29/02 02/05/02 02/13/02 02/22/02 03/28/02

PSA 2.15 2.15 8.64 6.70 5.43 5.45 4.01 2.97 2.43 2.51 2.49

Date 04/29/02 05/28/02 06/24/02 07/22/02 08/20/02 09/26/02 11/04/02 12/10/02 01/27/03 02/05/03 03/11/03

PSA 2.15 2.08 2.07 2.16 2.08 1.96 2.37 2.08 2.59 2.40 1.95

Date 04/22/03 06/16/03 08/01/03 09/22/03 11/17/03 01/13/04 03/19/04 05/06/04 07/14/04 08/04/04 10/15/04

PSA 1.89 2.18 2.15 2.25 1.88 2.08 2.29 1.91 2.54 2.53 2.17

Date 12/03/04 12/13/04 12/22/04 03/28/05 04/05/05 06/01/05 07/06/05 08/09/05 09/21/05 11/21/05 01/18/06

PSA 6.45 3.37 3.29 5.3 7.43 4.42 18.3 2.44 3.03 2.23 2.37

Free PSA 15 %

Date 03/06/06 04/18/06 08/14/06 01/22/07 03/05/07 05/07/07 08/22/07 09/28/07 12/18/07 02/14/08 07/07/08

PSA 3.27 4.33 4.78 3.61 4.34
UCSF 3.46 4.62 5.14 3.25 4.00 4.00

Free PSA 16 %

Date 09/22/08

PSA 5.86

Free PSA

The estimate comes from a linear model ==> 3.5/16 months = 0.21875/month
* 4 months (May - Aug) = 0.875
==> Aug PSA ~ 6.2
Diagnosis: T1c, Gleason 3+3, no symptoms, no cancer found by DRE, TRUS; only in 2 of 14 biopsy cores; some cancer found in 1 Sep 1999 MRI Spectroscopy

Note that PSA reliability/reproducibility/variability is about +/- 10-15%

See the discussion in the full document ( http://www.cohensw.com/mvpcsg_nov99_text.html/)
The anomolous values of May 2001, Jan 2002 and the Winter of 2005 are due to bouts of prostatitis.


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Created: 26 October 1999
Last updated: 25 September 2008
Author: Howard J. Cohen

Bottom Line - PSA Evolution

© Copyright 2000-2008, Howard J. Cohen, Ph.D., All Rights Reserved